CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2016-10-20T14:36:00-CME-001)

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2016 Oct 21 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low with isolated background activity observed.
Region 2602 (N07W61, Cao/beta) showed some leader spot consolidation.
Region 2603 (N13E10, Bxo/beta) redeveloped spots this period.

A 9 degree long filament, centered near N26W02, was observed erupting in
SDO/AIA 304 and GONG imagery at about 20/1300 UTC. A slow-moving, faint
CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery lifting off the NW limb, first
visible at 20/1636 UTC. Initial analysis with limited coronagraph data
and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output suggests a possible weak, glancing
blow early to midday on 23 October. More analysis will be conducted as
additional imagery becomes available. There were no additional CMEs
observed in available coronagraph imagery during the reporting period.
     
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a slight
chance for C-class flares over the next three days (21-23 Oct).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 38,252 pfu at 20/1500 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at high levels on
day one (21 Oct). On days two and three (22-23 Oct), normal to moderate
levels are expected in response to particle redistribution
associated with the anticipated arrival of a recurrent CH HSS. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels for all three days (21-23 Oct).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected nominal conditions. Solar wind speed
averaged about 400 km/s, total field (Bt) ranged between 3-5 nT while
the Bz component was mostly northward to 3 nT with some brief southward
periods to -2 nT. Phi angle was variable, but predominately oriented in
a negative solar sector.

.Forecast...
Ambient solar wind conditions are expected to continue on day one (21
Oct). A recurrent, equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS is expected to
enhance conditions on days two and three (22-23 Oct).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime. 

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day one (21
Oct). On day two (22 Oct), conditions are expected to be quiet to active
with likely periods of isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions
due to the onset of a CIR in advance of a recurrent, equatorial,
positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
conditions are expected on day three (23 Oct) as CH HSS conditions
persist.

===
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2016 Oct 22 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 22-Oct 24 2016 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 22-Oct 24 2016

            Oct 22     Oct 23     Oct 24
00-03UT        2          4          5 (G1)
03-06UT        2          4          5 (G1)
06-09UT        3          3          4     
09-12UT        3          3          4     
12-15UT        3          4          4     
15-18UT        4          4          5 (G1)
18-21UT        5 (G1)     4          6 (G2)
21-00UT        4          5 (G1)     5 (G1)

Rationale: G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely under the influence of
a positive polarity CH HSS on day one (22 Oct). G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate)
conditions are likely on day two and three (23-24 Oct) with  the onset
of a stronger, positive polarity CH HSS and potential contribution from
the flanking edge of weak CME.

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